Experiment 3: Results

Choice Prediction Competition for Decisions under Risk and Ambiguity

CPC 2015 - Supported by the Max Wertheimer Minerva Center
for Cognitive Processing and Human Performance

Organized by: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Ori Plonsky

Table 4. The 60 Problems Studied in Experiment 3 (the competition set). 
Click here to download a simpler (and longer) description of the results

  B-rate
Option A Option B   Lottery   No-FB With-FB
Prob H pH L Hb pHb Lb   Shape Num Corr Amb   rb1 rb2 rb3 rb4 rb5
91 7 1 7 16 0.1 10 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.92 0.96 0.99 0.99 1
92 8 0.8 -37 102 0.2 -29 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.39 0.28 0.35 0.31 0.32
93 5 1 5 103 0.1 -9 1 L-skew 4 0 1 R-skew 0.56 0.48 0.44 0.33 0.3
94 7 1 7 6 0.75 1 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.1 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.02
95 -3 0.05 -9 42 0.4 -24 1 L-skew 6 1 0 R-skew 0.72 0.6 0.57 0.57 0.57
96 35 0.5 -47 -10 0.75 -15 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.3 0.34 0.37 0.34 0.31
97 10 1 10 45 0.2 -5 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.22 0.14 0.27 0.24 0.21
98 94 0.5 -40 36 0.75 -21 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.51 0.45 0.43 0.44 0.45
99 22 1 22 44 0.4 15 2 Symm 5 0 0 Symm 0.65 0.74 0.75 0.71 0.71
100 18 0.6 -29 -1 1 -1 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.54 0.46 0.5 0.54 0.53
101 28 1 28 73 0.05 27 2 Symm 3 0 0 Symm 0.83 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.76
102 11 1 11 25 0.5 -3 2 Symm 3 0 1 Symm 0.39 0.51 0.59 0.62 0.59
103 27 0.8 -4 77 0.1 22 1 R-skew 6 -1 0 R-skew 0.83 0.82 0.73 0.78 0.77
104 -6 1 -6 3 0.99 -27 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.85 0.95 0.98 0.97 0.98
105 30 1 30 90 0.01 36 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.9 0.97 1 1 1
106 2 1 2 34 0.05 -5 2 Symm 5 0 0 Symm 0.2 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.12
107 25 1 25 65 0.25 9 2 Symm 5 0 0 Symm 0.39 0.39 0.4 0.37 0.32
108 16 1 16 91 0.2 -11 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.27 0.17 0.23 0.19 0.18
109 11 1 11 26 0.5 -9 0 - 0 0 0 - 0.33 0.41 0.47 0.38 0.4
110 12 1 12 29 0.8 -35 1 L-skew 2 0 0 R-skew 0.56 0.72 0.71 0.7 0.77
111 28 1 28 47 0.6 -13 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.25 0.41 0.41 0.4 0.39
112 -7 1 -7 28 0.2 -18 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.51 0.36 0.31 0.29 0.26
113 9 0.95 0 37 0.25 -3 1 R-skew 6 0 0 R-skew 0.35 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.37
114 72 0.01 -2 112 0.25 -33 0 - 1 -1 0 - 0.44 0.45 0.4 0.42 0.32
115 50 0.4 5 20 0.8 -17 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.17 0.19 0.23 0.2 0.2
116 2 1 2 45 0.05 3 2 Symm 5 0 0 Symm 0.95 0.99 1 1 1
117 -6 1 -6 7 0.5 -30 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.33 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34
118 26 1 26 46 0.5 10 1 L-skew 6 0 0 R-skew 0.47 0.56 0.62 0.59 0.57
119 19 0.4 12 100 0.25 -12 1 R-skew 2 0 0 R-skew 0.33 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.35
120 -9 0.95 -26 -1 0.1 -11 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.57 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.42
121 -8 1 -8 21 0.01 0 2 Symm 3 0 0 Symm 0.79 0.95 0.99 1 0.99
122 68 0.05 -14 -11 0.9 -36 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.36 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.4
123 28 0.75 -13 57 0.1 16 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.74 0.64 0.66 0.7 0.63
124 15 0.95 7 42 0.01 19 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.85 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98
125 28 1 28 41 0.4 12 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.29 0.36 0.33 0.33 0.36
126 -8 1 -8 80 0.2 -18 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.52
127 4 1 4 29 0.6 -40 0 - 1 0 1 - 0.26 0.33 0.44 0.46 0.44
128 -3 1 -3 32 0.4 -16 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.64 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.56
129 -2 1 -2 -2 1 -2 2 Symm 9 0 0 Symm 0.46 0.53 0.51 0.48 0.53
130 72 0.4 -41 16 0.01 1 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.61 0.6 0.56 0.54 0.54
131 18 1 18 45 0.01 11 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.19 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06
132 11 1 11 20 0.99 4 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.81 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.98
133 3 1 3 8 0.99 -17 2 Symm 9 0 0 Symm 0.71 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.94
134 27 0.05 24 31 0.5 10 2 Symm 3 0 0 Symm 0.34 0.34 0.38 0.38 0.37
135 6 1 6 8 0.5 -1 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.25 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.29
136 4 1 4 25 0.01 -5 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.16 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05
137 3 1 3 4 0.4 3 2 Symm 5 0 1 Symm 0.73 0.86 0.9 0.9 0.9
138 23 1 23 21 0.8 16 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.13 0.07 0.01 0.02 0.02
139 14 1 14 35 0.6 -9 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.48 0.67 0.7 0.64 0.65
140 -2 1 -2 9 0.25 8 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.91 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98
141 28 0.8 -26 22 0.75 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.77 0.7 0.62 0.6 0.62
142 23 1 23 29 0.8 -8 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.3 0.44 0.43 0.51 0.54
143 67 0.5 -39 93 0.25 -15 0 - 1 0 0 - 0.53 0.58 0.54 0.6 0.63
144 16 0.8 12 15 1 15 2 Symm 9 0 0 Symm 0.42 0.5 0.44 0.42 0.42
145 17 0.5 -27 3 0.75 -35 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.34 0.34
146 45 0.2 3 75 0.05 13 2 Symm 5 0 0 Symm 0.79 0.82 0.84 0.87 0.84
147 29 1 29 36 0.1 32 2 Symm 7 0 0 Symm 0.88 0.96 0.99 0.98 0.97
148 65 0.01 1 12 0.01 3 0 - 1 -1 1 - 0.73 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85
149 12 1 12 31 0.1 12 2 Symm 3 0 0 Symm 0.86 0.9 0.92 0.91 0.94
150 16 1 16 24 0.05 12 1 L-skew 3 0 0 R-skew 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.17