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Experiment 2: Results | Environmental Economics and Management

Experiment 2: Results

 
ellsberg paradox
 

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The Robert H. Smith Faculty
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The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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Choice Prediction Competition for Decisions under Risk and Ambiguity

CPC 2015 - Supported by the Max Wertheimer Minerva Center
for Cognitive Processing and Human Performance

Organized by: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Ori Plonsky

Table 3. The Sixty Problems Studied in Experiment 2 (estimation set). 
Click here to download a simpler (and longer) description of the results

 

                     

B-rate

 

Option A

Option B

Lottery

   

No-FB

With-FB

Prob.

H

pH

L

H

pH

L

Num

Shape

Corr

Amb

B1

B2

B3

B4

B5

All

31

4

1

4

40

.6

-44

1

-

0

1

.23

.31

.34

.41

.37

.36

32

24

.75

-4

82

.25

3

1

-

0

0

.68

.68

.67

.67

.69

.68

33

-3

1

-3

14

.4

-22

1

-

0

0

.33

.28

.31

.25

.22

.26

34

7

1

7

27

.1

4

3

Symm

0

0

.39

.45

.43

.41

.40

.42

35

-5

1

-5

47

.01

-15

1

-

0

0

.18

.09

.04

.03

.05

.05a

36

28

1

28

88

.6

-46

4

R-skew

0

0

.39

.55

.56

.60

.57

.57a

37

23

.9

0

64

.4

-7

1

-

0

0

.38

.41

.42

.37

.37

.39

38

24

1

24

34

.05

28

1

-

0

0

.91

.98

.99

1.0

1.0

.99

39

29

1

29

33

.8

6

5

Symm

0

0

.50

.69

.70

.68

.66

.68a

40

3

.8

-37

79

.4

-46

7

L-skew

0

0

.49

.54

.61

.60

.56

.58

41

29

1

29

44

.4

21

5

Symm

0

0

.68

.73

.74

.68

.68

.71

42

-6

1

-6

54

.1

-21

1

-

0

1

.61

.48

.25

.23

.20

.29a

43

14

1

14

12

.9

9

1

-

0

0

.13

.04

.00

.00

.01

.01a

44

23

1

23

24

.99

-33

1

-

0

0

.27

.44

.47

.49

.47

.47a

45

13

1

13

13

1

13

9

Symm

0

0

.50

.56

.59

.53

.52

.55

46

37

.01

9

30

.6

-37

1

-

0

0

.20

.27

.27

.31

.30

.29

47

11

1

11

57

.2

-5

6

L-skew

0

0

.22

.20

.21

.16

.15

.18

48

-2

1

-2

24

.5

-24

1

-

0

1

.39

.49

.52

.45

.42

.47

49

23

1

23

23

1

23

3

Symm

0

0

.54

.50

.49

.48

.48

.49

50

4

1

4

4

1

4

9

Symm

0

0

.44

.66

.60

.57

.57

.60

51

42

.8

-18

68

.2

23

1

-

0

0

.79

.71

.74

.72

.70

.72

52

46

.2

0

46

.25

-2

1

-

0

0

.36

.26

.25

.22

.22

.24

53

28

1

28

42

.75

-22

1

-

0

0

.36

.43

.42

.42

.42

.42

54

18

1

18

64

.5

-33

1

-

0

0

.32

.30

.31

.32

.29

.30

55

43

.2

19

22

.25

17

9

Symm

-1

0

.21

.16

.09

.07

.07

.10

56

-8

1

-8

-5

.99

-34

1

-

0

0

.76

.88

.91

.90

.89

.90

57

49

.5

-3

33

.95

17

9

Symm

-1

0

.77

.71

.70

.73

.75

.72

58

85

.4

-7

40

.25

24

1

-

0

0

.60

.51

.52

.54

.56

.53

59

17

.25

16

43

.4

2

1

-

0

0

.51

.52

.52

.49

.49

.51

60

51

.1

21

38

.6

1

1

-

0

0

.37

.38

.34

.29

.30

.33

61

26

.25

25

29

.05

24

7

R-skew

0

0

.67

.62

.62

.60

.56

.60

62

25

1

25

45

.2

17

1

-

0

0

.32

.32

.35

.34

.34

.34

63

17

1

17

60

.1

15

5

Symm

0

0

.68

.70

.67

.66

.69

.68

64

52

.1

-8

5

.9

-43

1

-

0

1

.35

.55

.70

.72

.68

.66a

65

12

.4

-16

-5

1

-5

1

-

0

0

.33

.40

.44

.45

.45

.43

66

45

.6

2

54

.1

20

5

L-skew

0

0

.43

.35

.40

.44

.43

.40

67

85

.25

4

54

.25

11

1

-

1

0

.45

.47

.46

.48

.43

.46

68

12

1

12

102

.2

-14

1

-

0

0

.39

.27

.29

.32

.31

.30

69

49

.5

11

31

.95

21

3

Symm

0

1

.39

.29

.37

.40

.45

.38

70

18

1

18

35

.75

-19

1

-

0

0

.38

.55

.58

.60

.58

.58a

71

13

.6

-20

76

.2

-26

1

-

0

0

.38

.25

.29

.23

.28

.26

72

-9

1

-9

13

.25

-8

1

-

0

0

.82

.96

1.0

1.0

1.0

.99a

73

2

1

2

51

.05

0

7

Symm

0

0

.37

.38

.39

.39

.41

.39

74

44

.05

16

14

.9

10

3

Symm

0

1

.13

.05

.02

.00

.00

.02a

75

13

1

13

50

.6

-45

1

-

0

0

.35

.44

.42

.44

.50

.45

76

35

.01

16

20

.5

13

5

Symm

0

1

.68

.71

.71

.68

.64

.68

77

1

1

1

38

.4

-9

1

-

0

0

.65

.66

.65

.60

.63

.64

78

19

1

19

44

.05

9

1

-

0

0

.11

.12

.11

.14

.12

.12

79

32

.01

19

65

.01

9

1

-

0

0

.14

.07

.04

.02

.02

.03a

80

3

1

3

50

.4

-36

1

-

0

0

.47

.37

.41

.41

.43

.40

81

10

.25

2

-1

.9

-32

1

-

0

1

.14

.04

.01

.01

.01

.02a

82

25

1

25

26

.01

25

7

Symm

0

1

.55

.72

.77

.81

.82

.78a

83

9

1

9

64

.01

9

1

-

0

0

.87

.96

.98

.98

.99

.98a

84

27

1

27

22

.99

-7

1

-

0

0

.08

.02

.00

.00

.00

.01

85

20

1

20

70

.25

6

1

-

0

0

.43

.45

.49

.46

.44

.46

86

71

.5

-11

61

.75

-49

1

-

0

1

.13

.23

.30

.32

.25

.28a

87

-2

1

-2

4

.99

-34

7

Symm

0

0

.81

.96

.98

.96

.98

.97a

88

17

.05

-7

13

.25

-15

1

-

0

1

.68

.57

.51

.44

.37

.47b

89

17

1

17

44

.1

17

1

-

0

0

.88

.96

.99

1.0

1.0

.99a

90

10

1

10

31

.75

-49

1

-

0

0

.42

.55

.53

.56

.55

.55

Note. B-rates are mean choice rates for Option B, presented according to blocks of five trials each or according to availability of feedback:


No-FB (no feedback) or With-FB (with feedback).

The rightmost column shows the mean B-rate across all 4 With-FB blocks.

Values in bold (in the No-FB and All-With-FB columns) are significantly different from .5 at p < .05 significance level (corrected for multiple testing according to Hochberg’s, 1988, procedure).