Experiment 2: Results

Choice Prediction Competition for Decisions under Risk and Ambiguity

CPC 2015 - Supported by the Max Wertheimer Minerva Center
for Cognitive Processing and Human Performance

Organized by: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Ori Plonsky

Table 3. The Sixty Problems Studied in Experiment 2 (estimation set).
Click here to download a simpler (and longer) description of the results

											B-rate
	Option A			Option B			Lottery				No-FB	With-FB
Prob.	H	pH	L	H	pH	L	Num	Shape	Corr	Amb	B1	B2	B3	B4	B5	All
31	4	1	4	40	.6	-44	1	-	0	1	.23	.31	.34	.41	.37	.36
32	24	.75	-4	82	.25	3	1	-	0	0	.68	.68	.67	.67	.69	.68
33	-3	1	-3	14	.4	-22	1	-	0	0	.33	.28	.31	.25	.22	.26
34	7	1	7	27	.1	4	3	Symm	0	0	.39	.45	.43	.41	.40	.42
35	-5	1	-5	47	.01	-15	1	-	0	0	.18	.09	.04	.03	.05	.05^a
36	28	1	28	88	.6	-46	4	R-skew	0	0	.39	.55	.56	.60	.57	.57^a
37	23	.9	0	64	.4	-7	1	-	0	0	.38	.41	.42	.37	.37	.39
38	24	1	24	34	.05	28	1	-	0	0	.91	.98	.99	1.0	1.0	.99
39	29	1	29	33	.8	6	5	Symm	0	0	.50	.69	.70	.68	.66	.68^a
40	3	.8	-37	79	.4	-46	7	L-skew	0	0	.49	.54	.61	.60	.56	.58
41	29	1	29	44	.4	21	5	Symm	0	0	.68	.73	.74	.68	.68	.71
42	-6	1	-6	54	.1	-21	1	-	0	1	.61	.48	.25	.23	.20	.29^a
43	14	1	14	12	.9	9	1	-	0	0	.13	.04	.00	.00	.01	.01^a
44	23	1	23	24	.99	-33	1	-	0	0	.27	.44	.47	.49	.47	.47^a
45	13	1	13	13	1	13	9	Symm	0	0	.50	.56	.59	.53	.52	.55
46	37	.01	9	30	.6	-37	1	-	0	0	.20	.27	.27	.31	.30	.29
47	11	1	11	57	.2	-5	6	L-skew	0	0	.22	.20	.21	.16	.15	.18
48	-2	1	-2	24	.5	-24	1	-	0	1	.39	.49	.52	.45	.42	.47
49	23	1	23	23	1	23	3	Symm	0	0	.54	.50	.49	.48	.48	.49
50	4	1	4	4	1	4	9	Symm	0	0	.44	.66	.60	.57	.57	.60
51	42	.8	-18	68	.2	23	1	-	0	0	.79	.71	.74	.72	.70	.72
52	46	.2	0	46	.25	-2	1	-	0	0	.36	.26	.25	.22	.22	.24
53	28	1	28	42	.75	-22	1	-	0	0	.36	.43	.42	.42	.42	.42
54	18	1	18	64	.5	-33	1	-	0	0	.32	.30	.31	.32	.29	.30
55	43	.2	19	22	.25	17	9	Symm	-1	0	.21	.16	.09	.07	.07	.10
56	-8	1	-8	-5	.99	-34	1	-	0	0	.76	.88	.91	.90	.89	.90
57	49	.5	-3	33	.95	17	9	Symm	-1	0	.77	.71	.70	.73	.75	.72
58	85	.4	-7	40	.25	24	1	-	0	0	.60	.51	.52	.54	.56	.53
59	17	.25	16	43	.4	2	1	-	0	0	.51	.52	.52	.49	.49	.51
60	51	.1	21	38	.6	1	1	-	0	0	.37	.38	.34	.29	.30	.33
61	26	.25	25	29	.05	24	7	R-skew	0	0	.67	.62	.62	.60	.56	.60
62	25	1	25	45	.2	17	1	-	0	0	.32	.32	.35	.34	.34	.34
63	17	1	17	60	.1	15	5	Symm	0	0	.68	.70	.67	.66	.69	.68
64	52	.1	-8	5	.9	-43	1	-	0	1	.35	.55	.70	.72	.68	.66^a
65	12	.4	-16	-5	1	-5	1	-	0	0	.33	.40	.44	.45	.45	.43
66	45	.6	2	54	.1	20	5	L-skew	0	0	.43	.35	.40	.44	.43	.40
67	85	.25	4	54	.25	11	1	-	1	0	.45	.47	.46	.48	.43	.46
68	12	1	12	102	.2	-14	1	-	0	0	.39	.27	.29	.32	.31	.30
69	49	.5	11	31	.95	21	3	Symm	0	1	.39	.29	.37	.40	.45	.38
70	18	1	18	35	.75	-19	1	-	0	0	.38	.55	.58	.60	.58	.58^a
71	13	.6	-20	76	.2	-26	1	-	0	0	.38	.25	.29	.23	.28	.26
72	-9	1	-9	13	.25	-8	1	-	0	0	.82	.96	1.0	1.0	1.0	.99^a
73	2	1	2	51	.05	0	7	Symm	0	0	.37	.38	.39	.39	.41	.39
74	44	.05	16	14	.9	10	3	Symm	0	1	.13	.05	.02	.00	.00	.02^a
75	13	1	13	50	.6	-45	1	-	0	0	.35	.44	.42	.44	.50	.45
76	35	.01	16	20	.5	13	5	Symm	0	1	.68	.71	.71	.68	.64	.68
77	1	1	1	38	.4	-9	1	-	0	0	.65	.66	.65	.60	.63	.64
78	19	1	19	44	.05	9	1	-	0	0	.11	.12	.11	.14	.12	.12
79	32	.01	19	65	.01	9	1	-	0	0	.14	.07	.04	.02	.02	.03^a
80	3	1	3	50	.4	-36	1	-	0	0	.47	.37	.41	.41	.43	.40
81	10	.25	2	-1	.9	-32	1	-	0	1	.14	.04	.01	.01	.01	.02^a
82	25	1	25	26	.01	25	7	Symm	0	1	.55	.72	.77	.81	.82	.78^a
83	9	1	9	64	.01	9	1	-	0	0	.87	.96	.98	.98	.99	.98^a
84	27	1	27	22	.99	-7	1	-	0	0	.08	.02	.00	.00	.00	.01
85	20	1	20	70	.25	6	1	-	0	0	.43	.45	.49	.46	.44	.46
86	71	.5	-11	61	.75	-49	1	-	0	1	.13	.23	.30	.32	.25	.28^a
87	-2	1	-2	4	.99	-34	7	Symm	0	0	.81	.96	.98	.96	.98	.97^a
88	17	.05	-7	13	.25	-15	1	-	0	1	.68	.57	.51	.44	.37	.47^b
89	17	1	17	44	.1	17	1	-	0	0	.88	.96	.99	1.0	1.0	.99^a
90	10	1	10	31	.75	-49	1	-	0	0	.42	.55	.53	.56	.55	.55

Note. B-rates are mean choice rates for Option B, presented according to blocks of five trials each or according to availability of feedback:

No-FB (no feedback) or With-FB (with feedback).

The rightmost column shows the mean B-rate across all 4 With-FB blocks.

Values in bold (in the No-FB and All-With-FB columns) are significantly different from .5 at p < .05 significance level (corrected for multiple testing according to Hochberg’s, 1988, procedure).

	dxcompexperiment2distributiondata.zip	24 KB