Experiment 1: Results

Choice Prediction Competition for Decisions under Risk and Ambiguity

CPC 2015 - Supported by the Max Wertheimer Minerva Center
for Cognitive Processing and Human Performance

Organized by: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Ori Plonsky

Table 2. The Thirty Problems Studied in Experiment 1.
Click here to download a simpler (and longer) description of the results

											B-rate
	Option A			Option B			Lottery				No-FB	With-FB
Prob.	H	pH	L	H	pH	L	Num	Shape	Corr.	Amb	1	2	3	4	5
1	3	1	3	4	0.8	0	1	-	0	0	.42	.57	.57	.60	.65
2	3	0.25	0	4	0.2	0	1	-	0	0	.61	.62	.62	.64	.62
3	-1	1	-1	0	0.5	-2	1	-	0	0	.58	.60	.60	.58	.56
4	1	1	1	2	0.5	0	1	-	0	0	.35	.51	.54	.50	.54
5	-3	1	-3	0	0.2	-4	1	-	0	0	.49	.46	.42	.38	.36
6	0	0.75	-3	0	0.8	-4	1	-	0	0	.38	.40	.40	.42	.41
7	-1	1	-1	0	0.95	-20	1	-	0	0	.48	.63	.62	.62	.64
8	1	1	1	20	0.05	0	1	-	0	0	.39	.38	.33	.34	.29
9	1	1	1	100	0.01	0	1	-	0	0	.47	.40	.39	.39	.39
10	2	1	2	101	0.01	1	1	-	0	0	.55	.45	.43	.42	.42
11	19	1	19	20	0.9	-20	1	-	0	0	.13	.22	.21	.20	.21
12	0	1	0	50	0.5	-50	1	-	0	0	.34	.41	.43	.44	.38
13^a	0	1	0	50	0.5	-50	1	-	0	0	.36	.37	.40	.37	.36
14	0	1	0	1	0.5	-1	1	-	0	0	.49	.45	.42	.41	.38
15	7	1	7	50	0.5	1	1	-	0	0	.78	.84	.88	.83	.85
16	7	1	7	50	0.5	-1	1	-	0	0	.71	.79	.81	.83	.83
17	30	1	30	50	0.5	1	1	-	0	0	.24	.33	.33	.30	.29
18	30	1	30	50	0.5	-1	1	-	0	0	.23	.33	.40	.33	.33
19^b	9	1	9	9	1	9	8	R-skew	0	0	.37	.39	.36	.31	.30
20	9	1	9	9	1	9	8	R-skew	0	0	.38	.38	.39	.36	.36
21	10	0.5	0	10	0.5	0	1	-	0	1	.37	.42	.47	.48	.51
22	10	0.1	0	10	0.1	0	1	-	0	1	.82	.84	.78	.71	.66
23	10	0.9	0	10	0.9	0	1	-	0	1	.15	.16	.26	.33	.32
24	-2	1	-2	-1	0.5	-3	1	-	0	0	.48	.52	.48	.48	.45
25	2	1	2	3	0.5	1	1	-	0	0	.41	.50	.46	.46	.49
26	16	1	16	50	0.4	1	1	-	0	0	.50	.65	.61	.60	.55
27^c	16	1	16	48	0.4	1	3	L-skew	0	0	.50	.57	.60	.58	.57
28	6	0.5	0	9	0.5	0	1	-	-1	0	.91	.87	.83	.85	.84
29	2	1	2	3	1	3	1	-	0	0	.97	.98	.99	.99	1.0
30	6	0.5	0	8	0.5	0	1	-	1	0	.94	.97	.96	.98	.98

Note. B-rates are mean choice rates for Option B, presented in five blocks of five trials each: No-FB is the block without feedback, and With-FB are the blocks with feedback.

a. An accept/reject type problem (the problem is replaced with a proposal to accept or reject a game of chance with Option B’s outcomes).

b. A coins-toss type problem (Option B is construed as a game of chance similar to that used by Bernoulli, 1738/1954). Its implied payoff distribution is described in Row 6 of Table 1. c The implied payoff distribution is described in Row 10 of Table 1.

	dxcompexperiment1distributiondata.zip	19 KB